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The Times - Forget trying to talk to Khartoum
In the post-teddy bear era there is a new way to try and make progress in the Darfur crisis, by Nick Donovan, Head of Campaigns, Policy and Research at the Aegis Trust

In their public actions, if not their private words, international diplomats tend to be idealists posing as realists. Their realpolitik is focused on pushing parties towards peace. They see the shard of idealism that the ICC prosecutor has thrust into the crisis as a threat to a peace deal.

However, current diplomatic efforts are equally idealistic. Negotiations with Khartoum represent the triumph of hope over experience. The pattern is familiar: a deal is born, and then bleeds to death by a thousand small cuts inflicted by the Khartoum regime; the international community slowly loses patience but then gives Sudan a second chance in the hope it will behave better next time. For example, the UN-African Union peacekeeping force has been delayed for months because of obstructions over such things as permission to fly at night.

The alternative is another form of realism. This is based on the insight that Khartoum is an “unstable centre” in which different elites battle for dominance. …

In Sudan this approach would take the form of an international ban on dealing with the business interests that fund the atrocities in Darfur and provide the finance for the regime’s powers of patronage; asset freezes targeted against Sudanese ministers; British and US support to the ICC by handing over evidence from signal intelligence sources; even targeted sanctions against the oil sector, so long as revenues could be retained for humanitarian purposes. As alternative leaders emerge, they should be subtly rewarded by according them international respect and, on occasion, providing economic support. No one should argue that the next generation of leaders will be perfect democrats. But it is hard to imagine that they could be worse.

The ICC is an opportunity, not a threat. Future indictments provide a clear platform, based on international law, for a strategy of marginalising the current elite. The failed approach of the past five years is predicated on the idea that the ruling regime is a credible negotiating partner who can be trusted to keep its promises.

After 20 years of mass atrocity and forced famine, the only surprise is that we have given them the benefit of the doubt for so long.

Hah.